WAR-REPORT : Iran has tried to insert itself into the ceasefire-hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas since Israel killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, according to regional sources speaking to Emirati media. An anonymous source told the outlet that Iran has become a “key behind-the-scenes player” in the negotiations.
Senior Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi, have repeatedly engaged Egyptian and Qatari mediators in recent weeks, as CTP-ISW has reported. Iran trying to insert itself into the negotiations is consistent with CTP-ISW’s assessment that some elements of the Iranian regime, possibly from the Pezeshkian administration, are likely trying to delay an Iranian attack on Israel until the negotiations conclude. Pezeshkian seeks to avoid a direct strike on Israel and has instead reportedly advocated for targeting “secret Israeli bases” in Iraqi Kurdistan and Azerbaijan.
An anonymous political source in Lebanon separately told Emirati media that Iran has used the threat of an attack on Israel to obtain a “bigger role in the Palestinian file.” It is unclear what this role would entail. The source added that Egypt sought to postpone an Iranian attack on Israel, which Iran may have done in exchange for this expanded influence.
CTP-ISW continues to assess that an Iranian attack on Israel is the most likely Iranian course of action. US White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby said on August 27 that Iran is “still postured and poised” to attack Israel. Kirby added that the United States will maintain its deterrent military posture in the Middle East “as long as we feel we need to keep it in place to defend Israel and defend our own troops and facilities in the region.”
Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Brigadier General Hojatollah Qureishi separately warned on August 27 that Iran’s response to Israel will be “unpredictable.” The Iranian ambassador to Lebanon similarly claimed on August 26 that Iran will “certain[ly]” retaliate against Israel. Qureishi and the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon would not be responsible for planning an Iranian attack on Israel, however.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Shin Bet rescued Israeli hostage Qaid Farhan al Qadi from an underground tunnel in the southern Gaza Strip on August 27. The IDF 401st Brigade, Shayetet 13 naval commandos, Yahalom combat engineers, and Shin Bet forces conducted the operation under the IDF 162nd Division.
Israeli forces did not encounter resistance from Palestinian fighters during the operation and located al Qadi alone in the tunnel complex where Hamas held him captive. Two security sources told Israeli Army Radio that al Qadi escaped from his captors and reached Israeli forces in the tunnel.
The IDF did not specify where in the southern Gaza Strip Israeli forces found Qadi, but two Israeli brigades have been conducting daily raids in Tal al Sultan since August 19. IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and the commanders approved Israeli forces’ “continuation of activity” on the ground after the rescue operation ended. Al Qadi is the first living hostage whom the IDF has recovered from an underground tunnel in the war.
