Vladimir Putin launched a coordinated campaign in late 2022 and early 2023

WAR-REPORT : Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a coordinated campaign in late 2022 and early 2023 to prevent the emergence of an independent veterans-based civil society in Russia, likely out of fear that veteran groups could threaten the stability of his regime upon their return from Ukraine.

The Kremlin launched several initiatives to co-opt loyalist veteran figures and form state-controlled veterans organizations in support of the permanent militarization of Russian society at the federal, regional, and local levels.

The Kremlin seeks to silence voices capable of meaningfully objecting to the continuation of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine or questioning Russian government decisions. Putin is likely trying to avoid a modern analog to the veterans-based civil society born from the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Kremlin likely fears political instability such as what followed the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1988-1989.

It is falsely framing its current initiatives to co-opt veteran life as preventative measures against the reemergence of “Afghan syndrome” — a popular Russian term used to describe the aftermath of the Soviet government’s failure to reintegrate psychologically traumatized Soviet veterans into Russian society upon their return from Afghanistan.

It is thus using the cover of “preventing Afghan syndrome” as an excuse to prevent the emergence of civil society groups that could have credibility among the population as well as organizational ability but might not remain loyal to Putin himself or his decisions and actions.

The Kremlin’s decision to launch this campaign indicates that Putin fears the risks and challenges associated with reintegrating over 700,000 veterans into Russian society and thus remains unlikely to demobilize fully or rapidly — even in the event of a negotiated settlement to its war in Ukraine. The United States and Ukraine’s allies must consider the Kremlin’s fear of emerging veteran civil society groups and demobilization when assessing Russia’s negotiating position and the requirements for enduring peace in Ukraine and Europe.