Russia is positioning itself for a prolonged and potentially expanded conflict

WAR-REPORT : Russia is positioning itself for a prolonged and potentially expanded conflict. As long as Moscow believes it holds the strategic initiative, it has little incentive to scale back its objectives in Ukraine, reduce pressure on NATO, or limit its cognitive warfare aimed at the United States. To alter this trajectory, the U.S. must actively compete for initiative in Ukraine, across Europe, and in the information space.

Western limitations on weapons provided to Ukraine and a gradual, risk-averse approach have effectively granted Russia strategic safe havens. These constraints have allowed Moscow to strengthen its defense industrial base with support from China, Iran, and North Korea and to protect its manpower and equipment in rear areas.

A shift in Western strategy can reverse this dynamic. While no single measure will decisively weaken Russia, sustained momentum through a continuous, coordinated set of actions can. Pressure must increase from incremental steps to a comprehensive campaign that produces mass, speed, and cascading strategic effects. Only by applying such sustained pressure can the U.S. and its partners reshape the course of the conflict.

• Russia is moving toward a protracted and potentially larger conflict.

  

• Moscow’s sense of initiative reduces incentives to compromise or de-escalate.

• Western restrictions on Ukraine’s weapons have created strategic safe havens for Russia.

• Russia has strengthened its defense industry with support from China, Iran, and North Korea.

  

• No single action will shift the balance, but sustained, coordinated pressure can.

• The U.S. and allies must move from gradual measures to a comprehensive, rapid-impact pressure campaign.