Potential SDF Leadership Split Raises Risk of Renewed Conflict in Syria

The leadership of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) may fracture over whether to accept Syrian President Ahmed al Shara’s terms for integrating the SDF into the Syrian state, a decision that could trigger renewed and potentially severe conflict between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters.

President Shara offered a significant concession to SDF commander Mazloum Abdi on January 20 by granting him a four-day window to consult with SDF leadership and secure internal approval for the proposed agreement. The terms would require the integration of both the SDF’s remaining territory and its military structure into the Syrian state framework. While the delay signals Damascus’ willingness to accommodate Abdi personally, it also exposes deep divisions within the SDF leadership.

Hardline factions within the SDF are reportedly pressuring Abdi to reject the deal. These elements—many aligned with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)—have previously obstructed negotiations, even when the Syrian government offered more favorable terms. Their opposition raises doubts about whether Abdi can secure unified backing for integration.

Moderates Likely to Accept, Hardliners May Continue Fighting

According to assessments by CTP-ISW, the most likely scenario is that Abdi and a group of more moderate SDF leaders will agree to Shara’s terms in an effort to prevent further bloodshed. However, some hardline commanders are expected to refuse compliance and may continue armed resistance.

There is currently no indication that hardline leaders have softened their positions. The PKK leadership based in Qandil appears to be encouraging resistance to the Syrian government’s advance, which is likely influencing decision-making among hardline elements within the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the SDF’s core Kurdish component.

On January 20, senior PKK official Murat Karayilan issued a statement to Kurdish media claiming that Turkey, Hayat Tahrir al Sham, and the Islamic State (ISIS) were jointly waging a “war” against Kurds in Syria aimed at stripping them of political agency and status. Such rhetoric, analysts note, risks inflaming tensions and undermining moderate voices within the SDF. Karayilan urged Syrian Kurds to “do whatever is necessary,” language that further complicates efforts to reach a negotiated settlement.

Risk of Insurgency Remains Even if Deal Is Accepted

CTP-ISW continues to assess that hardline SDF elements could resume attacks against Syrian government forces or initiate a Kurdish insurgency regardless of whether Abdi formally accepts Shara’s terms. While Karayilan advised Syrian Kurds to avoid acting hastily, his calls to “organize” and determine an “appropriate path” may be interpreted by some commanders as a signal to prepare for armed resistance.

Hardliners may choose to delay launching an insurgency until conditions are more favorable, rather than acting immediately after any formal agreement is announced. This approach mirrors earlier behavior, including their refusal to follow Abdi’s orders to halt fighting in Aleppo in early January—defiance that contributed directly to the current government offensive.

Any future insurgent activity could also involve non-Syrian fighters operating outside Abdi’s command structure. Kurdish media reported on January 21 that fighters from Iraqi Kurdistan had arrived in Hasakah, allegedly to support the SDF in potential confrontations with Syrian government forces.

As negotiations continue, the coming days are likely to determine whether Syria moves toward stabilization in its Kurdish-majority regions—or enters a new phase of armed conflict driven by internal fractures within the SDF.