Iran’s Heavy Security Crackdown Suppresses Protests, but Unrest May Resurface

WAR-REPORT : Iran’s sweeping securitization of society and its violent crackdown on public dissent appear to have temporarily suppressed nationwide protests. However, analysts warn that the government’s extensive mobilization of security forces is likely unsustainable, raising the possibility that demonstrations could re-emerge once the state’s grip weakens. The Iranian leadership has also failed to address the underlying political, economic, and social grievances that initially sparked the unrest, making long-term stability uncertain.

Reports indicate that Iranian authorities have imposed informal nighttime curfews in an effort to prevent protests, which typically occur after dark. Two sources in Tehran told BBC Persian, while a resident of Tabriz in East Azerbaijan Province spoke to anti-regime media, that authorities have instructed residents not to leave their homes after 8:00 p.m. Security forces have also been widely deployed to patrol urban centers across the country.

A resident of Tabriz told anti-regime outlets on January 15 that security personnel are present in “all areas” of the city, including smaller residential neighborhoods far from the city center. An unnamed foreign diplomat based in Iran echoed these accounts, telling The Washington Post on January 14 that security forces are “all over the town.” Separately, a Tehran resident told a Paris-based journalist on January 15 that tanks had been deployed in the capital. While no visual evidence has emerged to confirm the presence of tanks, analysts suggest that such a deployment—if accurate—would be intended to intimidate civilians and deter further demonstrations.

These pervasive security measures appear to have achieved their immediate objective. According to data collected by CTP-ISW, no protests were recorded on January 15, marking the second consecutive day without documented protest activity nationwide. Multiple sources inside Iran told Western media outlets that demonstrations have sharply declined in recent days following the regime’s intensified use of force.

A Tehran protest participant told The Wall Street Journal on January 15 that clashes between demonstrators and security forces escalated significantly after January 8, but that the capital had become “quiet” by January 12. The individual added that many Iranians appeared to have been psychologically shaken by the scale of the violence, saying, “It was as if we realized what had happened to us and how many had been killed.” Separate accounts provided to Reuters on January 14 and 15 similarly indicated that protests subsided after January 12. An unnamed foreign diplomat told The Washington Post that demonstrations have “generally subsided” and that “the fear factor has gained the upper hand.”

Human rights organizations have documented the heavy cost of the crackdown. A US-based human rights group reported on January 15 that Iranian authorities have killed at least 2,677 people and arrested 19,097 others since December 28 in connection with the protests. Observers note that the regime’s unprecedented brutality appears to have deterred many Iranians from continuing to demonstrate, at least in the short term.

Despite this apparent lull, experts caution that the government’s strategy may not be sustainable. Maintaining a constant, nationwide security presence risks exhausting law enforcement, military, and intelligence personnel over time. Senior Iranian officials previously acknowledged concerns about security force fatigue during the Mahsa Amini protest movement, raising questions about the state’s capacity to sustain such measures indefinitely.

The regime is also incurring significant costs through other securitization efforts, including a prolonged nationwide internet shutdown that disrupts economic activity and daily life. While the government’s willingness to absorb these costs underscores its perception of the population as a serious internal threat, it remains unclear how long Tehran can continue enforcing such restrictions.

With core grievances unresolved and security forces under sustained strain, analysts assess that the current calm may prove temporary, leaving open the possibility of renewed unrest in the months ahead.