Syrian Government Encircles SDF Forces in Kobani, Signaling Possible Major Offensive

WAR-REPORT : Syrian government forces have surrounded Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighters in the northern city of Kobani, marking what appears to be the initial phase of a multi-stage operation aimed at reducing the remaining SDF presence in the area.

As government forces advanced south of Kobani, civilians fled nearby villages and sought refuge in the city, swelling the population beyond normal levels. Despite the influx, civilians in Kobani currently lack access to electricity and running water. It remains unclear whether the outages were caused by SDF shelling that damaged infrastructure or by deliberate government action. Syrian authorities have accused the SDF of damaging energy infrastructure near the Tishreen Dam, leading to the disruptions. However, analysts note that such damage would likely cause power outages across a much wider area of northern Syria, raising questions about the government’s explanation. The SDF has also alleged that the government deliberately cut off internet access to the city.

Fighting continued across the southern and southwestern countryside of Kobani on January 22, despite an existing ceasefire agreement. Syrian government forces appear to have secured control of the east–west M4 highway as of January 20, a development that would facilitate troop deployments toward Kobani and effectively block any SDF withdrawal from the city in the absence of a negotiated settlement.

A commander from the Women’s Protection Units (YPJ) confirmed on January 22 that Kobani is fully encircled by government forces and that SDF units inside the city are unable to receive reinforcements.

Signs Point to Evacuation Phase Before Assault

Military developments suggest the current encirclement may precede the opening of an evacuation corridor for civilians before a major assault. The Syrian military’s posture around Kobani closely mirrors recent government operations against the SDF in Aleppo City and Deir Hafer, where Damascus employed a strategy of isolating contested areas before forcing their surrender.

In early January 2026, government forces compelled the SDF to relinquish control of the Kurdish neighborhoods of Ashrafiyeh and Sheikh Maqsoud in Aleppo by first cutting electricity on January 4, offering evacuation routes on January 7, and surrounding the districts with three divisions by January 8. A similar pattern followed in Deir Hafer, where authorities cut electricity on January 12, completed encirclement by January 13, and announced evacuation options on January 14. Final assaults in Aleppo and Deir Hafer began on January 8 and January 17, respectively.

Based on this precedent, analysts assess that the Syrian government may open an evacuation corridor for Kobani civilians within the next several days, followed by a military assault shortly thereafter—potentially after the collapse of the current ceasefire.

Further reinforcing this assessment, the Syrian Interior Ministry released a video on January 22 showing its personnel prepared to “deploy to Kobani,” signaling that the government expects to enter the city in the near term.